Advay’s thesis@advay ← profileRead-only. Their dollar amounts stay private.
KO earnings rally
Decision
- Prediction
- The market was closer
- Advay said 65% · Market 24% · It didn’t happen
A sound decision: they took the suggested size, and the trade fit their thesis. The loss doesn’t change that.
Trade outcome
Lost 63% of what they risked (pretend money).
Grades judge the decision. Your rating also checks whether your chance beat the market’s.
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Why this grade?
Filled by Optix Paper at $1.45 per share. The fair price was $1.41.
Took the suggested sizeRisk
Trade choice: Best fit
It was the best value per dollar for their thesis.
Expiry fit their deadlineTrade choice
- —
Paid the ask, as Optix Paper fillsEntry price
- —
Options expected ±3%. It moved +2%.Trade choice
What happened
Advay’s trade at their size, the others at our suggested size, as a share of what each risks. Actual is where each stood when they sold.
| If KO ends at… | Advay’s choice · Best fitCall spreadKO 10/30 92/96C (your choice) | #2SharesKO |
|---|---|---|
| ActualKO $91.51 · −1% | −63% of risk | −22% of risk (best in this row) |
| WrongKO $89.46 · −3% | −100% of risk | −70% of risk (best in this row) |
| No moveKO $92.44 · 0% | −70% of risk | −0.1% of risk (best in this row) |
| HalfwayKO $93.72 · +1% | +18% of risk | +30% of risk (best in this row) |
| On targetKO $95 · +3% | +107% of risk (best in this row) | +60% of risk |
| Way pastKO $97.57 · +6% | +176% of risk (best in this row) | +121% of risk |
Wrong means KO moves one expected move (±3%) against you.
Show the math
Values at your deadline (Oct 30). Options are worth their intrinsic value at expiry. "Wrong" is one expected move (±3%). Shares assume you hold.
The small number in each cell is the result as a share of that trade’s dollars at risk, so every column reads on the same basis.
Your chance vs the market’s
- Advay
- 65%
- Market
- 24%
The market’s chance was closer to the outcome.
It didn’t happen: KO closed at $94.08.
Prediction score. How close your chance landed to what happened, from 0 to 100. Higher is better.out of 100
One thesis proves little. Advay’s rating adds them up.
Show the math
Saying 50% every time scores 75. Higher prediction scores are better.
Brier score: Advay 0.42, market 0.06 (0 is perfect, lower is better). Prediction score = 100 − 100 × Brier, so higher is better.